Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 23 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 47537 (+2308) 846692 (+29505) 83978 (+1118) 715177 (+26079)
Italy 25085 (+437) 187327 (+3370) 54543 (+2943) 107699 (-10)
Spain 21717 (+435) 208389 (+4211) 85915 (+3401) 100757 (+375)
France 21340 (+544) 159877 (+1827) 40657 (+1476) 97880 (-193)
United Kingdom 18100 (+763) 133495 (+4451) 0 (+0) 115395 (+3688)
Belgium 6262 (+264) 41889 (+933) 9433 (+431) 26194 (+238)
Iran 5391 (+94) 85996 (+1194) 63113 (+2148) 17492 (-1048)
Germany 5279 (+246) 150648 (+2357) 99400 (+4200) 45969 (-2089)
China 4632 (+0) 82788 (+30) 77151 (+28) 1005 (+2)
Netherlands 4054 (+138) 34842 (+708) 0 (+0) 30788 (+570)
Brazil 2906 (+165) 45757 (+2678) 25318 (+2327) 17533 (+186)
Turkey 2376 (+117) 98674 (+3083) 16477 (+1559) 79821 (+1407)
Canada 1974 (+141) 40190 (+1768) 13986 (+843) 24230 (+784)
Sweden 1937 (+172) 16004 (+682) 550 (+0) 13517 (+510)
Switzerland 1509 (+31) 28268 (+205) 19900 (+500) 6859 (-326)
Mexico 857 (+145) 9501 (+729) 2627 (+0) 6017 (+584)
Portugal 785 (+23) 21982 (+603) 1143 (+226) 20054 (+354)
Ireland 769 (+39) 16671 (+631) 9233 (+0) 6669 (+592)
India 681 (+36) 21370 (+1290) 4370 (+395) 16319 (+859)
Indonesia 635 (+19) 7418 (+283) 913 (+71) 5870 (+193)
Ecuador 537 (+17) 10850 (+452) 1262 (+55) 9051 (+380)
Peru 530 (+46) 19250 (+1413) 7027 (+45) 11693 (+1322)
Romania 524 (+26) 9710 (+468) 2406 (+253) 6780 (+189)
Russia 513 (+57) 57999 (+5236) 4420 (+547) 53066 (+4632)
Austria 510 (+19) 14925 (+52) 11328 (+357) 3087 (-324)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 179251 (+6590) 2550276 (+79599) 639539 (+28617)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 180591 ( +4425) 2513480 ( +42499) 649124 ( +22560)
Fri 24 April 2020 184641 ( +4050) 2551989 ( +38509) 670170 ( +21046)
Sat 25 April 2020 188329 ( +3688) 2586760 ( +34771) 689673 ( +19504)
Sun 26 April 2020 191671 ( +3343) 2618057 ( +31296) 707636 ( +17962)
Mon 27 April 2020 194689 ( +3017) 2646145 ( +28088) 724085 ( +16449)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82788 (+30) 77151 (+28)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 3504 ( +0) 81401 ( +0) 76686 ( +7)
Fri 24 April 2020 3504 ( +0) 81401 ( +0) 76692 ( +6)
Sat 25 April 2020 3504 ( +0) 81401 ( +0) 76697 ( +5)
Sun 26 April 2020 3504 ( +0) 81401 ( +0) 76701 ( +4)
Mon 27 April 2020 3504 ( +0) 81401 ( +0) 76705 ( +4)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 21717 (+435) 208389 (+4211) 85915 (+3401)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 20929 ( +120) 198884 ( +1057) 82740 ( +765)
Fri 24 April 2020 21031 ( +102) 199794 ( +910) 83385 ( +645)
Sat 25 April 2020 21118 ( +87) 200576 ( +782) 83927 ( +542)
Sun 26 April 2020 21191 ( +73) 201248 ( +672) 84381 ( +454)
Mon 27 April 2020 21254 ( +62) 201824 ( +576) 84761 ( +380)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 25085 (+437) 187327 (+3370) 54543 (+2943)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 24046 ( +163) 179303 ( +969) 53684 ( +1523)
Fri 24 April 2020 24189 ( +144) 180164 ( +862) 55134 ( +1450)
Sat 25 April 2020 24316 ( +127) 180930 ( +765) 56508 ( +1375)
Sun 26 April 2020 24428 ( +112) 181609 ( +679) 57807 ( +1298)
Mon 27 April 2020 24526 ( +98) 182210 ( +602) 59028 ( +1222)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 18100 (+763) 133495 (+4451) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 17912 ( +361) 133576 ( +2951) 108 ( +1)
Fri 24 April 2020 18222 ( +310) 136222 ( +2646) 110 ( +1)
Sat 25 April 2020 18487 ( +265) 138582 ( +2360) 111 ( +1)
Sun 26 April 2020 18712 ( +225) 140678 ( +2096) 112 ( +1)
Mon 27 April 2020 18903 ( +191) 142531 ( +1853) 114 ( +1)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 47537 (+2308) 846692 (+29505) 83978 (+1118)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 49138 ( +1848) 829898 ( +13572) 90624 ( +4998)
Fri 24 April 2020 50809 ( +1672) 841841 ( +11943) 95390 ( +4766)
Sat 25 April 2020 52308 ( +1499) 852306 ( +10466) 99886 ( +4496)
Sun 26 April 2020 53640 ( +1332) 861444 ( +9138) 104086 ( +4200)
Mon 27 April 2020 54816 ( +1176) 869398 ( +7953) 107972 ( +3886)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 21340 (+544) 159877 (+1827) 40657 (+1476)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 21113 ( +271) 160212 ( +1017) 50312 ( +3444)
Fri 24 April 2020 21343 ( +231) 161072 ( +860) 54009 ( +3697)
Sat 25 April 2020 21539 ( +196) 161799 ( +727) 57977 ( +3969)
Sun 26 April 2020 21705 ( +166) 162411 ( +612) 62238 ( +4260)
Mon 27 April 2020 21844 ( +140) 162927 ( +516) 66811 ( +4573)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 5279 (+246) 150648 (+2357) 99400 (+4200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 5225 ( +115) 146503 ( +644) 97942 ( +1813)
Fri 24 April 2020 5326 ( +101) 147054 ( +551) 99511 ( +1569)
Sat 25 April 2020 5415 ( +89) 147524 ( +470) 100863 ( +1351)
Sun 26 April 2020 5492 ( +77) 147926 ( +401) 102021 ( +1159)
Mon 27 April 2020 5559 ( +67) 148268 ( +342) 103011 ( +990)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 4054 (+138) 34842 (+708) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 3918 ( +52) 34348 ( +470) 230 ( +0)
Fri 24 April 2020 3963 ( +45) 34771 ( +423) 230 ( +0)
Sat 25 April 2020 4002 ( +39) 35150 ( +379) 230 ( +0)
Sun 26 April 2020 4037 ( +34) 35489 ( +339) 230 ( +0)
Mon 27 April 2020 4066 ( +30) 35792 ( +303) 230 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 6262 (+264) 41889 (+933) 9433 (+431)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 6335 ( +139) 41243 ( +607) 9241 ( +132)
Fri 24 April 2020 6455 ( +119) 41785 ( +541) 9355 ( +114)
Sat 25 April 2020 6556 ( +102) 42265 ( +481) 9452 ( +98)
Sun 26 April 2020 6643 ( +86) 42691 ( +426) 9536 ( +84)
Mon 27 April 2020 6716 ( +73) 43067 ( +376) 9607 ( +71)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 1937 (+172) 16004 (+682) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 1891 ( +68) 16016 ( +389) 580 ( +8)
Fri 24 April 2020 1954 ( +63) 16380 ( +364) 587 ( +7)
Sat 25 April 2020 2011 ( +57) 16719 ( +340) 592 ( +6)
Sun 26 April 2020 2062 ( +51) 17035 ( +316) 597 ( +5)
Mon 27 April 2020 2108 ( +46) 17327 ( +292) 601 ( +4)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 426 (+25) 10169 (+313) 1513 (+216)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 421 ( +11) 10080 ( +197) 1551 ( +113)
Fri 24 April 2020 430 ( +9) 10258 ( +177) 1659 ( +109)
Sat 25 April 2020 438 ( +8) 10416 ( +159) 1761 ( +102)
Sun 26 April 2020 445 ( +7) 10558 ( +141) 1856 ( +95)
Mon 27 April 2020 451 ( +6) 10683 ( +126) 1942 ( +86)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 1509 (+31) 28268 (+205) 19900 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 1472 ( +16) 27526 ( +68) 19149 ( +231)
Fri 24 April 2020 1486 ( +13) 27585 ( +58) 19342 ( +193)
Sat 25 April 2020 1498 ( +12) 27634 ( +49) 19503 ( +160)
Sun 26 April 2020 1507 ( +10) 27676 ( +42) 19635 ( +133)
Mon 27 April 2020 1516 ( +9) 27711 ( +35) 19745 ( +109)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 22 April 2020 5391 (+94) 85996 (+1194) 63113 (+2148)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 23 April 2020 5225 ( +36) 85758 ( +765) 66604 ( +1978)
Fri 24 April 2020 5258 ( +32) 86453 ( +695) 68473 ( +1869)
Sat 25 April 2020 5287 ( +29) 87082 ( +630) 70230 ( +1757)
Sun 26 April 2020 5313 ( +26) 87652 ( +570) 71874 ( +1644)
Mon 27 April 2020 5336 ( +23) 88168 ( +515) 73407 ( +1532)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.